The Halving of Bitcoin will be, according to Peter Brandt, not bullish
In the past few months, the upcoming reduction in Block Rewards, Bitcoin has been called “Halving”, as a harbinger of the next explosive crypto currency bull run branded.
In fact, the last two Halvings, the algorithmic monetary policy of the BTC are a by-product selected, from a purely chart-technical point of view, the beginning of a monumental value increase of BTC. The Halving has marked the beginning of two parabolic price explosions in the history of Bitcoin and the rally 2012-2013 from below 10 to 1,200 dollars, and the rally 2016-2017 from $ 500 to $ 20,000. This simple pattern, although a pattern with an extremely small sample size, has convinced many investors that Bitcoin will shoot to the Halving in may of this year, also back to the “moon”.
According to Peter Brandt, a longtime commodities trader and Analyst, once a sharp critic of Bitcoin, the change to the recent decline in its setting, will not be the Halving, however, bullish. In a on 17. March published the Tweet, noted the Analyst, the Halving of Bitcoin is “grossly overvalued,” and said that the decline in the BTC Inflation is negligible, if you look at the daily trading volume of the asset. In fact, he said that the 50% decline in Inflation, caused by the Halving, a “Small-change” in the great System of the crypto is market and, therefore, probably no significant impact will have.
Bitcoin halving = #Grossly_over_rated
The daily trading volume of BTC = the REAL supply of BTC
The daily reduction of mined $BTCs (NEW supply) equals approx 2/100th of 1% of REAL supply
Reduction of NEW supply b/c of halving the as % of REAL supply = chump change
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) March 17, 2020
The comment comes shortly after the experienced trader noted that he believes that BTC is about to fall below $ 1,000. Brandt, however, is not the only well-known Analyst and Investor, the history of the Bitcoin Halving can be cold. Jason Williams, a co-founder of the Digital Asset Fund Morgan Creek Digital Assets, said in December that one of his unpopular opinions, this is:
The Halving of Bitcoin in may 2020, it will not harm the price of nothing. It will be a Non-event.
In addition, a co-founder of Bitmain, Jihan Wu said that he believes that a Bitcoin bull run will follow in the next year may be the Halving. The Funny thing is that the math is on the side of the bulls, at least for the Moment. In March 2019, published PlanB – an anonymous institutional Investor based in Europe, the analyzed Bitcoin as a personal passion – a famous article on Medium, entitled “Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity”. The article describes that the market capitalization of Bitcoin can be applied over time on a logarithmic Regression that has an R-square of 95 %.
The model predicts that BTC will be after the Halving due to the Emission-shocks, a value of 55,000 to 100,000 USD. The model has since been adapted slightly to take into account more economic factors and the recent price action, but shows that Bitcoin is still trading (even after the Crash of last week) as if his long-term value would be a derivative of its scarcity level. In particular, the model does not predict that Bitcoin will rise immediately after the Halving in may to a six-digit value, but it predicts a long-term recovery in the direction of the “fair value”.
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